Tavinho Paes

 

Um bem querer tomando forma

ALVES

 

Quarteto 004 - O Morro Não Tem Vez (Tom & Vinicius)

O morro não tem vez E o que ele fez já foi demais Mas olhem bem vocês Quando derem vez ao morro Toda a cidade vai cantar

Finados: Brasil, de memória fraca, segue com 700 mil mortes impunes

 

LEONARDO SAKAMOTO

O Brasil tem a sétima população mundial, mas foi o segundo em número de óbitos por covid-19, com 700 mil. Essa discrepância não é obra da mãe natureza, mas resultado de uma política negacionista tomada pelo governo Jair Bolsonaro e aliados, que demoraram a comprar vacinas e incentivaram a livre contaminação.

 
Hoje, Dia de Finados, é bom momento para lembrar aos brasileiros que perderam alguém ou que se importam com a vida que os crimes cometidos contra a saúde pública entre 2020 e 2021 seguem praticamente impunes.

Certamente, os atos do ex-presidente pesaram contra a sua reeleição, mas a resposta política é apenas parte da equação. Se não houver punição firme aos envolvidos, a mesma coisa pode ser repetir na próxima pandemia. E sim, a ciência aponta que haverá outras.

A CPI da Covid, instalada no Senado Federal em 2021, teve 67 sessões, 215 quebras de sigilo, 1.582 requerimentos, terminando com o pedido de indiciamento de 78 pessoas, entre eles o ex-presidente Bolsonaro por “expor” deliberadamente a população a risco concreto de infecção em massa”.

Ela pediu o seu indiciamento por charlatanismo, prevaricação, infração de medida sanitária preventiva, emprego irregular de verba pública, epidemia com resultado de morte.

O inquérito contra ele está sob responsabilidade do STF, mas é mais fácil ele ser condenado por surrupiar joias dadas ao Brasil pelos árabes do que ser punido pelo que a CPI apontou.

 
Enquanto isso, vamos vendo a política tentar reescrever essa história.

O prefeito de São Paulo Ricardo Nunes deu uma cadeirada discursiva no Zé Gotinha e abraçou o pior do bolsonarismo-raiz ao afirmar que era contra a obrigatoriedade da vacina durante esta eleição. Entende-se que, em nome do voto, candidatos comam salgado em boteco duvidoso, beijem filhote de cachorro de rua e deem bom dia para cavalo, mas abraçar uma posição que matou milhares é abrir o alçapão no fundo do poço.

UOL

TRUMPNESIA: Millions Have Amnesia About the Worst of Trump’s Presidency. Memory Experts Explain Why.

"And to regain the White House, Trump needs to cover not just the pandemic but a lot else with the mists of time, including his attempt to overturn an election and his incitement of January 6’s insurrectionist attack, a trade war with China that cost the US hundreds of thousands of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in GDP, his love affairs with dictators like Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, his broken vows to boost infrastructure and to replace the Affordable Care Act with a better and cheaper program, his two impeachments, and nine years of chaos, scandals, and mean-spirited, racist, and ignorant remarks.

That’s a lot of forgetting to rely upon, and the fact that Trump still has a good shot at victory is a sign that he can successfully stuff much of this history into the mental recesses of the electorate. Fortunately for him, the nature of human memory plays to Trump’s favor—even, perhaps especially, when it comes to a pandemic.

Historians have long observed how quickly the so-called Spanish flu of 1918, which killed 50 million worldwide and nearly 700,000 in the United States, vanished from public conversation. As George Dehner, an environmental historian at Wichita State University, observed in his book Influenza: A Century of Science and Public Health Response, “the most notable historical aspect of Spanish flu is how little it was discussed,” resulting in “a curious, public silence."

READ MORE>>  Millions Have Amnesia About the Worst of Trump’s Presidency. Memory Experts Explain Why. – Mother Jones

O candidato sou eu!

AROEIRA

 

Se você sair chorando (Geraldo Pereira e Nelson Teixeira) – Roberto Paiva, 1939

Você vai que a rua lhe convida De que valem duas vidas Sem prazer Tudo quanto é difícil Eu dou-lhe com sacrifício E você não sabe me compreender

Phil Lesh Didn’t Hold Songs Down. He Lifted Them Higher.

 

 

"For all their free-form interludes, the Dead’s songs had clear landmarks and structures — some of them far trickier than the band’s nimble performances would let on. Lesh could stick to a riff, as he dutifully did in the intro to “Touch of Grey,” the Dead’s only Top 10 (and only Top 40) single. But when the verse arrived, he was footloose again: nudging, scurrying, syncopating from below. His bass lines held hints of Bach, jazz, bluegrass, blues, Latin music and far more, as he sought out new interstices each time through a song.

“I wanted to play in a way that heightened the beats by omission, as it were, by playing around them, in a way that added harmonic motion,” he wrote in his memoir. “I wanted to play in a way that moved melodically but much more slowly than the lead melodies sung by the vocalists or played on guitar or keyboard. Contrast and complement: Each of us approached the music from a different direction, at angles to one another, like the spokes of a wheel.”"

read article by Jon Pareles

Phil Lesh Didn’t Hold Songs Down. He Lifted Them Higher. – DNyuz

 

Brian Eno - Top Boy

Gisèle Pelicot lawyers: trial exposes ‘profound problem’ in attitudes to sexual violence

 

"Taking the stand in France’s biggest ever rape trial, Patrice N, 55, an electrician from the southern town of Carpentras, said he was a “jovial” guy and a fun dad who once trained youth football teams and had a “great respect for women”.

He denied the charges of rape, claiming rape had never been his intention. “To my mind, it was a game,” he told the court."

read more>>

Gisèle Pelicot lawyers: trial exposes ‘profound problem’ in attitudes to sexual violence | Gisèle Pelicot rape trial | The Guardian

‘Anticipatory obedience’: newspapers’ refusal to endorse shines light on billionaire owners’ motives

 

 "Veteran journalists and media critics are using a very different phrase to describe Soon-Shiong’s and Bezos’s choice: they’re saying the two billionaires, among the richest men on the entire globe, are performing “anticipatory obedience” to Donald Trump.

Yes, “cowardice” has also been a popular way to describe the choice by the billionaire owners of two of the country’s major newspapers to not to risk angering Trump by allowing their papers to endorse his opponent.

But “anticipatory obedience” is more specific. The term comes from On Tyranny, the bestselling guide to authoritarianism by Timothy Snyder, a historian of eastern and central Europe. The phrase describes, in Snyder’s words, “the major lesson of the Nazi takeover, and what was supposed to be one of the major lessons of the twentieth century: don’t hand over the power you have before you have to. Don’t protect yourself too early.” It’s a way of describing what Europeans did wrong as totalitarians came to power: by “mentally and physically conceding, you’re already giving over your power to the aspiring authoritarian”, Snyder explains."

read report by LOIS BECKETT

‘Anticipatory obedience’: newspapers’ refusal to endorse shines light on billionaire owners’ motives | Newspapers | The Guardian

 

Four More Years of Unchecked Misogyny

 

 

 

SOPHIE GILBERT

 Strange as this might be to say of the only American president found legally liable for sexual abuse, the only leader of the free world accused of dangling a TV gig in front of a porn performer seemingly as an enticement for sex, the only commander in chief to publicly denigrate the sexual attractiveness of both Heidi Klum (“no longer a 10”) and Angelina Jolie (“not a great beauty”), I don’t believe Donald Trump hates women. Not by default, anyway. “When it comes to the women who are not only dutifully but lovingly catering to his desires,” the philosopher Kate Manne wrote in her 2017 book, Down Girl, “what’s to hate?”

The misogyny that Trump embodies and champions is less about loathing than enforcement: underscoring his requirement that women look and behave a certain way, that we comply with his desires and submit to our required social function. The more than 25 women who have accused Trump of sexual assault or misconduct (which he has denied), and the countless more who have endured public vitriol and threats to their life after being targeted by him, have all been punished either for challenging him or for denying him what he fundamentally believed was his due.

At the micro level, Trump’s misogyny can be almost comical, in an absurdist sort of way, like the time in 1994 when he fretted over whether his new infant daughter would inherit her mother’s breasts, or when he tweeted to Cher in 2012, “I promise not to talk about your massive plastic surgeries that didn’t work.” On a larger scale, the legislative and cultural shifts he fostered during his four years in the White House are so drastic that they’re hard to fully parse. Until 2022, women and pregnant people had the constitutional right to an abortion; now, thanks to Trump’s remade Supreme Court, abortion is unavailable or effectively banned in about a third of states. The MAGA Republican Party is ever more of a boy’s club: All 14 representatives who announced bids to become House speaker after the ouster of Kevin McCarthy were men; the victor, Mike Johnson, has blamed Roe v. Wade in the past for depriving the country of “able-bodied workers” to prop up the American economy. Online and off, old-fashioned sexists and trollish provocateurs alike have been emboldened by Trump’s ability to say grotesque things without consequences.

Trump’s glee in smacking down women has filtered into every aspect of our culture. If, as the literary critic Lionel Trilling wrote, “ideology is not acquired by thought but by breathing the haunted air,” then Trump has helped radicalize swaths of a generation essentially through poisonous fumes. He didn’t create the manosphere, the fetid corner of the internet devoted to sending women back to the Stone Age. But he elevated some of its most noxious voices into the mainstream, and vindicated their worst prejudices. “I’m in a state of exuberance that we now have a President who rates women on a 1–10 scale in the same way that we do,” wrote the former self-described pickup artist Roosh V on his website shortly after the election.

By now, misogyny has bled into virtually every part of the internet. TikTok clips featuring Andrew Tate, the misogynist influencer and accused rapist and human trafficker who has said that women should bear some personal responsibility for their sexual assaults and frequently derides women as “hoes,” have been viewed billions of times. (Tate has denied the charges against him.) In 2021, before Elon Musk bought Twitter and oversaw a spike in misogynistic and abusive content—not to mention reinstating the accounts of both Trump and Tate—the Tesla entrepreneur and men’s-rights icon tweeted that he was going to inaugurate a new college called the Texas Institute of Technology & Science (TITS). Boys on social media are being inundated with messaging that the only qualities worth prizing in women are sexual desirability and submission—a worldview that aligns perfectly with Trump’s. Misogyny, as my colleague Franklin Foer wrote in Slate in 2016, is the one ideology Trump has never changed, his one unwavering credo. Seeking to dominate others with his supposed sexual prowess and loudly professing disgust at women he doesn’t desire has been his modus operandi for decades. Any woman who challenges him is “a big, fat pig,” “a dog,” a “horseface.”

What would four more years of Trump mean for women? It’s hard to conclude that Trump was moderated by the presence of his daughter in the West Wing, exactly—or, for that matter, by any of the advisers who thought they could temper his worst instincts before they ended up fleeing in droves. But what’s most chilling about a possible second Trump presidency is that he would certainly now be unchecked. The advisers who remain are the ones who bolster his darker impulses. It was Trump’s adviser Jason Miller, Axios’s Mike Allen reported, who psyched him up between segments of his 2023 CNN town hall as he became more and more aggressive toward the moderator, Kaitlan Collins. “Are you ready? Can I talk? Do you mind?” Trump jeered at her. Anyone who’s ever witnessed an abusive relationship could instantly recognize the tone.

ATLANTIC

 

Candidato eleito indo embora

AMORIM

 

Eva Pilarová - Tam, Odkud Píše Mi Láska (The Letter in Czech, The Box Tops cover...

GAMBOA

 

Hitchcock & Simenon

MARIO BAGG

 

Lobão - Rádio Blá

in memoriam TAVINHO PAES

Ela adora me fazer de otário

Para entre amigas, ter o que falar

É a onda da paixão paranóica

Praticando sexo como jogo de azar

Uma noite ela me disse: quero me apaixonar

Como quem pede desculpas pra si mesmo

A paixão não tem nada a ver com a vontade

Quando bate é o alarme de um louco desejo

Não dá para controlar, não dá

Não dá pra planejar

 

 

"Whatever the case may be, Trump has continued to make plainly dangerous and stunning remarks. 

They are the sorts of ideas that would have been shocking to hear from any mainstream politician just a decade ago. And yet, today, Trump—arguably the single most influential figure in the United States—says these things, and they hardly register. Consider the following examples, all from just the past few months:"

 read article by DAVID GRAHAM

 

Kamala Harris has a problem with men. Will misogyny cost her the election?

 

 "Rather than challenge Harris openly on gender, Trump digs and jibes indirectly, persistently talking about the need for “strength” in leading the country and bashing America’s enemies. “Strength” is his code for “male” or “manly”. His running mate, JD Vance, has cut out the “childless cat lady” talk – but his foul sexism lives on behind glib words. Viewed this way, the election could be said to boil down to a contest between Trump’s “strength” and Harris’s “joy”, her successful campaign motif. It’s Mars against Venus. Or, in its simplest form, man versus woman."

 

read articole by SIMON TISDALL

Kamala Harris has a problem with men. Will misogyny cost her the election? |

Jack Jones - The impossible dream

 To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow
And to run where the brave dare not go

IN MEMORIAM

 

‘It’s not bravery’: key points from Gisèle Pelicot’s moving testimony

 

 "I wanted all woman victims of rape - not just when they have been drugged, rape exists at all levels – I want those woman to say: Mrs Pelicot did it, we can do it too.

When you’re raped there is shame, and it’s not for us to have shame – it’s for them.

It’s true that I hear lots of women, and men, who say you’re very brave. I say it’s not bravery, it’s will and determination to change society."

READ MORE>>

‘It’s not bravery’: key points from Gisèle Pelicot’s moving testimony | Gisèle Pelicot rape trial | The Guardian

Monstros de estimação

 

GAMBOA

 

A profissão de Hitchcock

MARIO BAGG

 

Crosby, Stills, Nash, & Young - Our House

Our house is a very, very, very fine house
With two cats in the yard
Life used to be so hard
Now everything is easy 'cause of you

Muralha Paulista, o projeto de vigilância de Tarcísio em SP

 

"O major foi apresentado no evento, segundo a reportagem, como o “braço do secretário [de Segurança Pública de São Paulo] Guilherme Derrite na construção do Muralha Paulista”. O objetivo da reunião era “convencer síndicos a cederem as câmeras dos próprios condomínios da região central da cidade para o programa”.

No encontro, Fernandes explicou que as imagens captadas pelas câmeras podem ser direcionadas em até oito segundos para os telefones celulares de policiais em patrulha na região, facilitando a identificação de pessoas com passagens policiais. “Não precisa rodar reconhecimento facial nem nada, nem outro tipo de algoritmo de inteligência, porque isso nós vamos rodar. […] Não precisa ser uma alta resolução. Uma boa câmera comprada na [rua] Santa Ifigênia já resolve”,"

leia reportagem de Caio De Freitas & Rubens Valente

Privacidade: Muralha Paulista, o projeto de vigilância de Tarcísio em SP

A vitoria do amigo da onça

 

O tédio desesperador da conversinha mole do Brasil

 

Vinicius Torres Freire :

"Vai se fechando cada vez mais o círculo de ferro da feudalização da política: barões do Congresso mandam dinheiro para os feudos, elegem mais prefeitos, que ajudam a eleger mais deputados, já com orçamentos gordos a facilitar a reeleição e favorecidos pela direitização geral do povo e pela esquerda desmiolada. O Orçamento vira pó.

O que quer o direitão vitorioso, afora o óbvio? Não sai uma ideia dali —até Michel Temer tinha programa. Os direitões não se articulam com setor social mais prestante e pensante ou com grupos de tecnocratas ou estudiosos nem para fingir que se ocupam de dar rumo a essa nossa mixórdia. No máximo, os que se ocupam da política-politiqueira tratam de "bastidores", fofocas e ninharias sobre o que vai fazer um desses tipos do direitão para levar mais poder e dinheiro."

Batatinha - Diplomacia

Meu desespero ninguém vê
Sou diplomado em matéria de sofrer

morro do gari

 

Grateful Dead - Truckin'

in memoriam PHIL LESH

Truckin', like the do-dah man
Once told me, "You've got to play your hand"
Sometimes the cards ain't worth a dime
If you don't lay 'em down

Muito mais que futebol

ATIVISHTA

 

 

 

AMARILDO

 

 

 

KLEBER

 

 

 

Jack Jones - You've Got Your Troubles

 

You need some sympathy well so do I
You've got your troubles, I've got mine

IN MEMORIAM

Trumptopia and Beyond

 

 "After all, how could you truly write fiction in a world — and I’m not just thinking of Donald Trump (though I most distinctly am thinking of him) — that seems ever more fictionalized? How could you write fiction in a country whose former president and presidential candidate used the word “I” 317 times in a single speech or, in another, spun a tale of near death in an almost-helicopter crash in which nothing he mentioned actually happened? He even — all too conveniently — put the wrong “Brown” (Kamala Harris’s pal Willie Brown instead of California governor Jerry Brown) in the copter that didn’t come close to going down with him on board. Oh, wait, maybe there actually was a helicopter with him and another cast of characters entirely that did at least come closer to going down! And just in case you hadn’t noticed, he’s already claiming, in a strikingly repetitive fashion, that Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential campaign and Kamala Harris’s nomination together represent nothing short of a “coup” in the Democratic Party: “This was an overthrow of a president. This was an overthrow… They deposed a president. It was a coup of a president. This was a coup.”"

more in the article by Tom Engelhardt

Trumptopia and Beyond - CounterPunch.org

Partido Republicano rasgou tradição para venerar Trump

 

 "Corrida eleitoral nos EUA parece confirmar que Partido Republicano deixou Carlos Gustavo Poggio de ser uma agremiação na concepção clássica do termo (organização que representa ampla gama de interesse, com lideranças substituíveis e uma ideologia que prevalece sobre as posições individuais) para se tornar um veículo personalista de devoção a Donald Trump, algo estranho à tradição do país. Mais que apenas escolher o próximo ocupante da Casa Branca, pleito em novembro poderá ter impacto profundo na estabilidade política do país."

leia análise de CARLOS GUSTAVO POGGIO

a =A voz das urnas

SPACCA

 

“Dystopian Vision”: Carol Anderson on Trump’s Election Denial & Racist Fearmongering

 

 "What he is signaling, again, is that crime is related to Blackness. Crime is related to immigrants who are not white. Crime is the thing — it is that dystopian vision that white Americans need to be fearful of all of these folks of color, that they cannot walk outside their doors without being attacked, without being mugged, without being shot, that the cities — you know, so, when he was talking about, you know, these cities have just burned down to the ground — except the people who live in those cities know that those cities have not burned down to the ground — again, it is this way of defining cities, these urban areas, and urban areas become synonymous with folk of color, that these urban areas are unsafe, and so white Americans are not safe in America as long as we have all of these folks of color. And then he links that in — he links that with immigrants coming in. And when he says “immigrants,” he means immigrants of color coming into the United States, again, linking that with crime, so, again, raising that sense of fear. Fear, fear, fear. And when he says, “I’m the only one who can solve this,” what he’s basically saying is, “I’m your white savior.” 

And so, that is what that dystopian vision is about. So, although crime is going down, he’s saying, “You can’t trust the FBI’s statistics. You can’t trust your eyes. You can’t trust how you’re living. You can’t trust that you’re in the park and enjoying yourself. You can’t trust that you’re bicycling and having no problems. You can’t trust that you’re going to the grocery store, no problem. You can’t trust the way that you’re living your lives, because I’m telling you that you are not safe. You are not safe.” And that is the signal that he’s sending, a racialized fear of crime. "

 more in the interview with Carol Anderson
conducted by Amy Goodman

“Dystopian Vision”: Carol Anderson on Trump’s Election Denial & Racist Fearmongering | Democracy Now!

The Climate Can’t Afford Another Trump Presidency

 

 

His approach to the environment: ignore it.

by Zoë Schlanger  

On the last Saturday before Donald Trump took office, in January 2017, I watched the controlled chaos of a hackathon unfold in a library at the University of Pennsylvania. Volunteer archivists, librarians, and computer scientists were trawling government websites, looking for data sets about climate change to duplicate for safekeeping. Groups like this were meeting across the country. Flowcharts on whiteboards laid out this particular room’s priorities: copy decades of ice-core statistics from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; scrape the Environmental Protection Agency’s entire library of local air-monitoring results from the previous four years; find a way to preserve a zoomable map of the factories and power plants emitting the most greenhouse gases.

The fear was that the incoming administration would pull information like this from public view—and within a week, it did. By noon on Inauguration Day, the Trump administration had scrubbed mentions of climate change from the White House website. By May, officials had taken down the EPA’s page laying out climate science for the general public, as well as 108 pages associated with the Clean Power Plan, the landmark Obama policy meant to curb emissions from power plants—months before the Trump administration tried to repeal the policy altogether.

The administration’s goal was to bury the issue of climate change. Nothing was done to address it; the very mention of it was knocked from the national agenda—and, by extension, the international agenda. If Trump returns to office, he will surely double down on this strategy.

First, the global implications: The United States would probably exit from the Paris Agreement again, Michael Gerrard, the founder and director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University, told me. Despite its status as the wealthiest big emitter, the United States continues to express little to no interest in substantially funding global climate action, even during Democratic administrations. For now, though, at least the country is still at the table for international climate talks. Pulling out of Paris might be a largely symbolic move, but it could have a domino effect. “India, Indonesia, Brazil—if they see the U.S. is not acting, it’s easy for conservative politicians in those countries to say, ‘These big rich guys aren’t doing anything; why should we?’ ” Gerrard said.

Domestically, it would in some ways be harder now for Trump to meaningfully alter climate policy than it was when he first came to office. Electric vehicles have become popular, and solar power will likely be the cheapest source of electricity in basically every country by 2030. Heat pumps have proved to be fantastically efficient, and a bipartisan consortium of 25 governors just agreed to quadruple the number of them installed in homes in their states. One consequence of the Trump administration was the emergence of a new kind of subnational climate diplomacy: Mayors and governors began meeting with international leaders to discuss the issue on their own. During a second Trump term, these efforts would surely pick up again.

In addition, certain new climate-friendly policies are so good for Republican states that their representatives probably won’t want to touch them. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 promotes clean power by offering major tax credits to individuals and businesses that make or use renewable energy, and most of that money is likely to flow to red states.

But a second Trump administration could still do major damage. The fossil-fuel lobby would work to dismantle climate policies. Groups led by the Heritage Foundation and the America First Policy Institute are already making a “battle plan” to block electricity-grid updates that would allow for solar and wind expansion, to prevent states from adopting California’s car-pollution standards, and to gut clean-power divisions at the Department of Energy, among other things.

Under a second Trump term, the EPA would no doubt be threatened with budget cuts, as it was during the first. Staffers would likely retire en masse, as they did before, and enforcement of climate policy would slow or stop.

But the first thing to go will likely be the websites—again. The U.S. has no law against a government agency deleting pages from its own websites, even if the information on them is in the public interest. “We have been telling the Biden administration that this is a real vulnerability,” Gretchen Gehrke, a co-founder of the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative, told me. For now, all of the data sets that those teams of hackers scraped the first time around are still housed on private servers, just in case. 

ATLANTIC

Elise LeGrow - Sincerely

Sincerely

Oh yes, sincerely

′Cause I love you so dearly

Please say you'll be mine

Oh, sincerely

GAMBOA

 

Se a bola de ouro nao vem

MIGUEL PAIVA 

 

 

Grateful Dead - Dark Star

IBN MEMORIAM PHIL LESH

Dark star crashes, pouring it's light into ashes
Reason tatters, the forces tear loose from the axis
Searchlight casting for faults in the clouds of delusion
Shall we go, you and I while we can
Through the transitive nightfall of diamonds?

OK, acabou a eleição...

AROEIRA

 

Eleitor do Lula não o colocou na presidencia para cortar saude e educação

 

 LEONARDO SAKAMOTO

É óbvio que o governo Lula não faz as mesmas loucuras que o governo Bolsonaro em termos de responsabilidade fiscal. A Faria Lima fechou os olhos para as estripulias de Paulo Guedes em nome da reeleição do “mito” e agora alerta o fim do mundo por causa de comentários do petista.

Dito isso, vale reforçar que o eleitor do atual presidente não o colocou lá para desvincular educação e saúde do orçamento, nem tungar o pagamento do BPC (voltado a idosos e pessoas com deficiência miseráveis), muito menos o seguro-desemprego (que, como o nome já diz, banca quem foi lançado à própria sorte), como defendem alguns. Para poupar rico e jogar só nas costas dos pobres, faria mais sentido ter deixado o Jair.

Há gente boa e realmente preocupada com o país entre os que defendem que Lula deve aceitar cortes agora, garantir que o Brasil alcance grau de investimento nas agências de risco e, então, com a entrada de recursos decorrentes disso, possa executar uma política social melhor. O problema é que, nessa equação, não está o povaréu que, desde a ditadura, ouve que o bolo precisa primeiro crescer para, depois, ser dividido. E, assim como a espera pelo Godot, de Samuel Beckett, a fatia do bolo nunca chega.

É mais fácil encontrar gente poderosa defendendo limitar o orçamento para creches, escolas e hospitais públicos e desvincular do salário mínimo pensões, aposentadorias e BPC dos pobres do que achar quem empunhe a bandeira de taxar decentemente os super-ricos. Atenção a quem parcelou seu Renegade em 24 vezes: você não é super-rico, apesar de achar que é, então pare de se assanhar.

Como aqui já escrevi, tirar dos muito, muito ricos não vai resolver as questões fiscais do país. Mas é muita sacanagem, para usar uma expressão leve, que o debate da saúde financeira gire em torno de subtrair cascalho usado para garantir um mínimo de dignidade a quem tem menos enquanto ignora-se a discussão sobre taxar os que mais têm.

UOL

QUE SHOW DE GUERRA É ESSE?

 

Miguel Paiva

 

Vendo na TV as imagens “espetaculares” das cidades destruídas no Líbano e em Gaza fico pensando no que está sob os escombros. É muita casa derrubada, lares destruídos, bairros inteiros no chão. Sob as ruínas desses edifícios estão vidas inteiras. Móveis, fotos, lembranças, utensílios, roupas, brinquedos e vidas. Sobretudo vidas.

 

O mundo assiste perplexo e passivo a isso tudo. Que poder tem Israel, ou melhor, Netanyahu para comandar esse massacre? Que interesse tem o mundo nessa guerra para que continue desse jeito desconhecendo as vidas humanas? A guerra da Ucrânia não atrai mais tanta atenção. O poder dos senhores da guerra ali é limitado. A própria Rússia, um desses senhores, está diretamente envolvida. O envolvimento do ocidente através da Ucrânia é limitado apesar de ainda vergonhoso. Alimentam a guerra em troca só do lucro. 

 

No oriente médio é ainda mais evidente. Os Estados Unidos e a Europa mandam armas, soldados e dinheiro. Na Europa no século passado o mundo também assistiu passivamente a ascensão de Hitler e do nazismo. Nenhuma comparação ideológica, mas a História junta os pontos de modo indiscutível. Motivos para Netanyahu não faltam para acabar com o oriente médio. O povo de Israel nada tem a ver com essa loucura. É guiado para ela. Netanyahu cada vez mais se parece com um déspota que ninguém consegue parar. E para as potências ocidentais o som do dinheiro entrando é mais forte do que os gritos das vítimas. Crianças morrem sob o nosso olhar emocionado, mas passivo.

 

Lá se foi o tempo em que as pessoas, as populações, os grupos políticos se reuniam nas ruas para protestar. Hoje até existem protestos aqui e ali. Alguns são grandes, outros insistentes, mas sinto um cansaço generalizado na nossa teimosia e no nosso humanismo que ainda resiste. Temos que continuar lutando. Assistir a isso tudo sem reagir é pior do que uma doença terminal. Vai nos matando, tirando o que nos resta de dignidade e humanidade. Muito triste.

 

Monstros de estimação

 

Nacionalização não ocorreu, mas ainda pode vir

 

 

Mais do que evitar levar consigo a culpa por eventuais derrotas, Lula escapou à armadilha de criar desafetos nestas eleições; já Bolsonaro, nem tanto 

Cláudio Couto  

 

Como costumeiramente ocorre, as eleições municipais de 2024 não se marcaram pela nacionalização. Nem o eleitorado vota no município com a cabeça na política nacional, nem os pleitos municipais antecipam o resultado da subsequente disputa presidencial. Embora isto seja mais verdadeiro para pequenas e médias localidades, não deixa de valer para grandes, onde muitas disputas se resolvem só no segundo turno.

Apenas no caso da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados a conquista de prefeituras e cadeiras nas Câmaras Municipais importa nacionalmente, pois constrói uma rede de articulação político-eleitoral relevante para candidatos cuja votação (apesar da regra proporcional do pleito) é primordialmente de natureza local, numa distritalização informal. Eleições majoritárias de base territorial ampla —governador, senador e presidente— têm outra dinâmica. Para elas, até ajuda dispor de uma ampla rede de correligionários implantada localmente, mas está longe de ser decisiva.

Por isso mesmo, em sentido oposto, o patrocínio de grandes padrinhos nacionais tem efeito marginal nas disputas locais. Em certos casos pode até servir de bússola para o eleitor desavisado saber dos alinhamentos políticos de candidaturas pouco conhecidas; o efeito, porém, é reduzido. Eis porque a ausência de Lula e Jair Bolsonaro durante a campanha paulistana foi secundária para a eleição. Embora de saída fosse mais fácil associar Guilherme Boulos a Lula do que Ricardo Nunes a Jair Bolsonaro, depois, mesmo com as vinculações claras, o voto em cada um dos candidatos obedeceu a outros critérios.

Primeiro, importou mais a avaliação da gestão, centrada nos temas locais. Nunes nunca foi um sucesso de crítica e público, mas sua avaliação jamais foi das piores, como revelaram seguidas pesquisas. O Datafolha divulgado em 24 de outubro mostrava Nunes com 26% de ótimo/bom, 28% de ruim/péssimo e 45% de regular, números muito próximos aos de levantamentos anteriores.

Como frequentemente ocorre quando o incumbente disputa a reeleição, o eleitorado prefere não trocar o certo pelo duvidoso, e a maioria dos ocupantes do cargo se reelege —até no caso de administrações medíocres. Esse foi o fator decisivo a favor de Nunes, não o apoio titubeante de Bolsonaro ou o engajamento intenso de Tarcísio de Freitas.

Em segundo lugar, conta a rejeição dos postulantes, especialmente no segundo turno, em que são sobretudo as rejeições que importam. No caso paulistano, o último Datafolha antes da votação mostrava que Boulos tinha nada menos que 52% de rejeição, contra 37% do prefeito. Uma distância de rejeições dessa magnitude se torna proibitiva para a candidatura mais rechaçada; seria necessário algo excepcionalíssimo para permitir sua vitória.

Resta agora avaliar o que estas eleições municipais deixam como saldo para o futuro próximo da política brasileira. Apesar dos resultados eleitorais em si contarem pouco para a disputa presidencial por vir, o comportamento dos atores importa. Em São Paulo, mas também noutros lugares do país, Bolsonaro mais contribuiu para alienar potenciais aliados do que para os manter a seu lado. Sua vacilação em se envolver na campanha de Nunes; as menções prioritárias ao vice bolsonarista na chapa, pondo o prefeito de lado; seu flerte com a candidatura antissistema de Pablo Marçal; e, não menos significativo, seu aparecimento repentino quando a reeleição de Nunes já parecia garantida, querendo aparecer na foto e levantar a taça sem ter contribuído para a conquista, tudo isso deixa sequelas.

Tal rescaldo do oportunismo e da deslealdade de Bolsonaro não se resumem a São Paulo. Sua atuação em Goiânia e Curitiba, atacando aliados e traindo alianças, também estão registrados. Nisso, Lula foi mais prudente ao se envolver pouco. Mais do que evitar levar consigo a culpa por eventuais derrotas, o atual presidente escapou à armadilha de criar desafetos. Já seu predecessor, nem tanto. E 2026 está logo ali. Nisto, a disputa municipal importa para a competição nacional que se aproxima.

 

FOLHA

 

 

 

 

La Dispute - Polly (Nirvana Cover)

Polly wants a cracker
I think I should get off her first
I think she wants some water
To put out the blow torch

Star Trek Chess

 

Caminho para as urnas

 

 

QUINHO