Before the invasion, I posted a 7-day weather outlook for Ukraine and wrote,
“Those are above-freezing temperatures, meaning that grounds are
already thawing out, creating a soft mushy mess that would bog down any
Russian incursion deep into Ukraine.” It wasn’t a particularly novel
observation.
A brief from the Center for Strategic and International Studies on January 13 noted that, “An
invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of
frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large
mechanized force [...] Should fighting continue into March, mechanized
forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw [...] In March, the frozen steppes thaw, and the land again becomes at best a bog, and at worst a sea of mud.”
The National Interest devoted an entire story on February 10 to the topic:
It has been said that Russia's weather helped save the
motherland from numerous invasions. While harsh winters played a major
role, so too did the Russian mud that came from the fall rains and
spring thaws. “Rasputitsa”
is the Russian term for the two seasons of the year—spring and
autumn—when travel on unpaved roads across the vast plains of the
country becomes difficult due to the muddy conditions.
The term literally translates to "thaw," but it has come to mean "time without roads."
The lack of passable countryside is a problem for two reasons. One,
mechanized units need space to maneuver. There’s a reason we’ve seen so
many videos of Russian equipment bogged down in, well, bog. That’s what they’re supposed to
do, spread out, and attempt to flank the enemy, attacking it on its
sides, attempt to surround them. They’re called “maneuver units” for a
reason. When the countryside is swallowing tanks, well, there’s no
maneuvering happening.
The second reason is the obvious one—by forcing Russian units to
remain on roads, it makes it easier to funnel them to ambush points,
makes it easier for aircraft and drones to find and hit, and limits
their progress toward key objectives to wherever the roads may take
them.
Russia supposedly invaded as late as it did so it wouldn’t step on
China’s Olympics. Whatever the actual reason, it has cost Russia dearly,
in time, in material, in lives, and in treasure. Apparently, it’s
Russia’s time to learn what Napoleon and Hitler discovered the hard
way.
