Based on the round of 32, who will win the World Cup?

 

NICK MILLER

The first knockout games are in the bag, and another 16 teams have exited the tournament. It’s taken a long time to reach the last 16, but now we have a clearer perspective on the main challengers for this World Cup.

In some respects, a lot of things haven’t changed. Germany and the Netherlands are the biggest names knocked out, but even if they played well at times in the group phase, neither side looked like a genuine contender.

Similarly, England, Portugal and Brazil all had strong moments, but also displayed their flaws in getting past DR Congo, Croatia and Japan. The co-hosts — the U.S., Canada and Mexico — are significant long shots to go all the way, but they made it through with varying degrees of comfort and little would have changed about the general opinion of their chances.

Argentina are perhaps the team who raised the loudest questions about their prospects while still actually progressing. They took the lead against Cape Verde twice, but either through defensive weakness or complacency (possibly a mixture of both), they looked astonishingly fragile at times.

Cape Verde, for all their spirit and hard work, are a technically limited team: if they can get at Argentina, then imagine what better sides will do. There’s also a big dollop of the old Messidependencia: the great man scored one and set up another, but beyond him, they were devoid of attacking ideas.

By far and away the best teams in the round, as was probably the case in the groups, were France and Spain. The French are a terrifying attacking force. Kylian Mbappe leads the way, beautifully complemented by Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele. Their depth is such that they could afford to leave out Desire Doue and still wipe the floor with Sweden.

Spain are a more understated attacking unit, and there’s a sense that while Lamine Yamal has been excellent, there is another gear for the Barcelona 18-year-old to find, which is fairly frightening for everyone else.

They are the teams to beat, but they are on the same side of the draw, so would meet in the semi-finals rather than the final. The other half looks pretty open: if we’re expecting Spain or France to be one of the sides lining up on July 19, the identity of their opponents is tough to predict.

THE NEW YORK TIMES