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  • O BRASIL EH O QUE ME ENVENENA MAS EH O QUE ME CURA (LUIZ ANTONIO SIMAS)

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    segunda-feira, abril 25, 2022

    No major attacks, no major counterattacks, but lots of small movements

     

    A picture taken from Novodruzhesk shows smoke rising after shelling in Rubizhne, on April 22, 2022, amid Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP) (Photo by YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images) 

    Putin’s war was always a war of conquest. As the days go past, Russian attacks meet ever more resistance, and more civilian areas are targeted for destruction by a frustrated Russian military, the whole story about those “independent republics” is being discarded. The problem for Russia is that if those republics were always a cover story, the idea of their Russia to Transnistria corridor seems like a fairy tale.

    On Saturday, Russia tossed a reported three more cruise missiles into Odesa, apparently striking a residential area. How much damage, in buildings or lives, those missiles have caused isn’t yet clear. But they certainly didn’t cause any harm to Ukrainian defenses. They absolutely don’t serve the Russian goal of extending the area it controls beyond Kherson. 

    Throwing cruise missiles at Odesa isn’t a military tactic. It’s an act of murderous petulance. For all the damage it causes, it’s an expression of how powerless Russia is to actually take the things it wants from Ukraine.

    How much trouble is Russia having in achieving it’s stated goals? Let’s go back, once again, to the other side of the country and the town of Popasna. Before the invasion, Popasna had a reported population of 19,000. It’s less than two miles from the larger town of Pervomaisk, which Russia has controlled for eight years. 

    This area has now been a battlefield for weeks. Russia still has not taken Popasna.

    On Saturday, as Russia was sending missiles at Odesa, it was lobbing artillery shells into Popasna. At least two people are reported dead. But the fact that Russia is still throwing artillery at Popasna clearly underlines one thing: They still haven’t taken it. Russia has run an unknown number of armored columns down that single broken stretch of highway. On Wednesday, it reported that it had captured Popasna. Russian state television ran video of a triumphant tank commander reportedly sailing into the town as they announced the “complete occupation.” Only it is not occupied. 

    Russia is making advances in the east, but so is Ukraine. Over the last two weeks, Russia has not been able to mount any major attack. Unfortunately, Ukraine has also not been able to mount a major counterattack. Kherson is still under Russian control, Ukrainian forces don’t seem to have made a significant advance toward the supply chain supporting that Izyum salient. No one has been able to break through to relieve Mariupol.

    But then, Ukraine may not be focusing on any of those things. With thousands of new tanks, UAVs, helicopters, transports, and artillery pieces to deal with, it’s all that Ukraine can do to get the new equipment into place, deal with the suddenly wealth of gear (and increased complexity), and prepare themselves to move when Russia moves.

     

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