A war that may have been a tactical success for the U.S., but is a strategic failure

 

JEFFREY ST CLAIR>

+ The New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner is almost always this interesting, but guys from the Atlantic Council usually aren’t. In this interview, Danny Citrinowicz provides a very clear-eyed assessment of the Iran War, documenting Trump’s repeated blunders and the reconstituted Iranian regime’s come-from-behind win. Here are some of Citrinowicz’s key observations:

“We have to remember what happened on February 28th—that Israel and the United States launched this campaign to topple the regime. In fact, they ended up strengthening it. Opening the Strait is not an achievement, since its closing was a by-product of the war itself. The Iranians are going to get some money, and sanctions relief may come after the deal is signed, too. If they don’t get money from this, they won’t do it. So, in that regard, what we’re facing right now is a war that may have been a tactical success for the U.S., but is a strategic failure.”

“I have to tell you something about the Iranian regime: They’re feeling so much in the driver’s seat that they’re not going to forgo anything. They have reached their limitations when it comes to compromising, and that’s where we are right now.”

“[Trump] should have stopped the war after three days…he should have stopped the war and offered to negotiate. There was no purpose after that. After three days, we all knew that there was not going to be any regime change in Iran. So why continue the war? Stop the war, say you won, negotiate on nuclear, capitalize on the fact that they are in disarray, and try to reach an agreement. Now? Now it’s a catastrophe!”

“[Trump] didn’t have any strategy, any plan, any anything. There were also none of the right experts in the room. Instead, there were people saying, You can do this, you can do that, telling Trump lies. Look at the blockade. How pathetic is his blockade? You should have done it before, not after. Who thought that this blockade would make Iran capitulate? Come on! You don’t know the Iranians. It was obvious it wasn’t going to work.”

“a collapse of the Israeli doctrine regarding Iran. Not only a defeat, not only a fiasco. A collapse. Look at what Netanyahu promised this whole time. He said, Just give me the opportunity to attack Iran. And he got it, twice. He got the U.S. beside him with all that power, the satellites, the air force, everything, and what have we got? A more radicalized regime that can rush into a nuclear bomb and still have a conventional missile capacity. It’s a shit show because at the end of the day, everything that Netanyahu promised failed miserably. And now Senator Lindsey Graham is talking about normalization. Come on. How can you be this disconnected from the situation in the Middle East? Israel is perceived as more of a threat than Iran by some countries after this. How are you going to have an agreement while Israel is annexing the West Bank?”

“Leaving the nuclear deal with Iran was one of the greatest strategic mistakes of the twenty-first century, and maybe would qualify as one of the biggest of the twentieth century as well, if you were to include it. Look, it wasn’t an optimal agreement, but it had certain virtues, and the worst thing was that the U.S. actually left the agreement with no counter-strategy. And Iran has learned so much since the U.S. left the agreement, especially on enrichment.”

 

COUNTERPUNCH