He Faced Down Trump. Now Comes His Biggest Challenge.

 

 "The wind may be at Mr. Lula’s back, but considerable challenges remain. For one, the coalition that led him back to office three years ago is extremely fragile. His party alone cannot deliver a majority in today’s fragmented political system. Victory next year will require stitching together a broad alliance ranging from the center-left to pragmatic conservatives, the same unwieldy bloc that sustained his comeback in 2022. That means tending constantly to centrist governors, congressional leaders and business groups, whom the current crop of would-be opposition candidates are also courting. Can Mr. Lula convince centrists that democracy is on the ballot even if Mr. Bolsonaro is not?"

" Mr. Lula’s will depend on whether he can keep the economy steady enough to blunt attacks on his management and frame the election as a referendum on democracy itself. He has already begun to do so, presenting himself as the bulwark against foreign interference and authoritarian relapse. If he can make 2026 about whether Brazil continues as an independent, pluralist society or veers back toward a pattern of democratic erosion that defers to the interests of the United States, he stands a decent chance."

READ ANALYSIS BY ANDRE PAGLIARINI